HomeGlobal Solo ChallengeThe balance between speed and risks in the Global Solo Challenge

The balance between speed and risks in the Global Solo Challenge

We’re in the week approaching Xmas at the Global Solo Challenge and the whole fleet seems to have found the rhythm and pace of the roaring forties. The majority of boats progressed under gray skies and in cold weather in the vicinities of the Crozet and Kerguelens Islands.

Philippe Delamare on the leading boat Mowgli, much further ahead, has just crossed the antimeridian, on the same day that the fastest boat in the fleet, Vento di Sardegna sailed by Andrea Mura, crossed the Greenwich Meridian.

Andrea’s entry in the great south did not spare him a baptism of fire and when sailing south east of Tristan da Cunhathe boat wiped out, followed by a breaker hitting Vento di Sardegna and pushing it to bear away causing an involuntary gybe. With the mainsail against the runners the boat was knocked down and pinned flat on the water until the Italian skipper could regain control of the situation and, fortunately, reported no damage.

The week had begun with the announcement of Dafydd Hughes’ retirement from the event in Hobart who did not feel his Bendigedig in its current state was fully fit for the long stretch in the Pacific to Cape Horn. Dafydd had sailed an inspiring and impeccable journey which saw him stop in Hobart following primary autopilot issues. However, even if he were to repair the autopilot, concerns would remain for the remainder of the event as the budget had not allowed the skipper to install redundant and reliable backup steering systems leading to the considerate realisation that he had achieved what he had set out to achieve, and that he should not put himself and his family under the stress of 3 more months of sailing knowing a technical issue, especially in the remoteness of the Pacific, could spell disaster. Followers of his adventure from around the globe inundated him with messages of admiration and support, his witty blogs will certainly be missed.

Dafydd Hughes ©globalsolochallenge

 

On thursday Ronnie Simpson woke up to find that he had suffered significant mainsail damage which cast a long gloomy shadow on the American skipper’s whole campaign. Plagued by a series of snags and problems Ronnie acknowledged that the mad rush to make the start meant he has not had the chance to prepare the boat as well as he would have liked to face the inevitable technical issues that can arise during a circumnavigation, including the need to carry out sail repairs. The weather stayed relatively manageable for the frustrated skipper, giving him a chance to take action and repair the two vertical rips on his most important sail. He had to cannibalise material cut from an old staysail and stitch and glue with sikaflex patches that will hopefully allow him to carry on sailing. He is considering a stop in Fremantle or Hobart, not just to make more permanent repairs to the sail but also to address other issues, like the total loss of the primary autopilot, before venturing into the long stretch of the Pacific. Ronnie has not yet finalised his plans. This past week was all about damage control, both in terms of preserving and repairing his sail, as well as trying to lose the least amount of miles to the boats ahead and behind.

The leaderboard is unchanged since last week, with Philippe Delamare on Mowgli holding skilfully onto his lead. The french skipper, who saw his sprayhood ripped clear off the deck by a breaking wave does not otherwise report any significant damage to his boat which he is sailing along the South Pacific ice limit. The safety of land is behind him until the south American continent. His strength so far has been in being able to take care of the boat without incurring in any technical problems that would cause him to slow down. Philippe has taken good care of his boat, finding a balance between speed and safety. He has already dealt with two major depressions one of which saw him sail in dantesque conditions in winds of 50 knots and huge 8 meter seas. Philippe took the time to applaud Dafydd Hughes’ achievement up to his retirement, when Bendigedig was still leading overall on the water, and concurring with the decision of the Welsh skipper as to the need to sail a boat that is fully equipped to face the remote waters ahead.

Cole Brauer on First Light sailed a more conservative week compared to the previous one during which she had suffered a nasty wipe out and knockdown resulting in a bad bruise to her ribs. Even though she openly shared she was taking it a little easier for a couple of days to regroup and find the energy to carry on, she still managed to shave in excess of 300 miles from leading Philippe Delamare, the gap between the two boats has narrowed not just in absolute mileage, which is to be expected as Cole’s is a faster boat, but also in relative terms, with Cole narrowing the expected arrival time gap calculated in days and hours.

Cole Brauer – First Light ©colebraueroceanracing

 

The unusual format of the Global Solo Challenge with its pursuit format and handicap taken into account at the start rather than at the end of the event requires a little additional intuition to work out the relative performance of boats. In very simple terms we can say that the first boat to cross the finish line will win, there will be no additional calculations to be made. However it takes some analysis to work out if a chasing boat is in fact sailing fast enough to catch up and close the handicap gap given at the start.

The ranking of the site gives some insights into this aspect and shows the average speed of each boat as well as the mileage gap and its conversion into an expected time of arrival gap. What we learn from this data is that Philippe Delamare’s Mowgli has averaged 7.4 knots so far, very remarkable for a non-planing boat, whilst Cole Brauer has kept an average of 8.6 knots, a very very significant average for a first generation Class40. Andrea Mura on Vento di Sardegna left 3 weeks behind Cole and has averaged 9.1 knots, an average that will probably increase in the long stretch of the roaring forties. Simple averages cannot give an insight into what could be expected if we considered other factors such as faster and slower sections of the circumnavigation.

Without exception, all boats have increased their daily mileage in the following winds of the roaring forties meaning that we can say, with confidence, that boats will average their highest daily mileages in the south and will not sail quite as fast from Cape Horn to the finish. We therefore follow with extreme interest the absolute and relative gap between the three benchmark boats for the different starts: Philippe Delamare on Mowgli, Cole Brauer on First Light and Andrea Mura on Vento di Sardegna. Philippe needs to get to Cape Horn with a significant margin if he wants to fend off the attacks of the young talented American skipper and the Italian racing veteran. If we consider that Philippe has approximately 4,000 miles left in the fast south, Cole around 7,500 and Andrea around 10,500 we can start to anticipate a furious battle for final victory with all results still open. Whilst Philippe has sailed an impeccable event so far, deserving every inch of his advantage, he won’t be able to relax till the end.

I don’t think there is good and bad luck over such a long circumnavigation and I believe over 25,000 miles each will have their share of slower or faster than expected conditions. The return home climbing in the South Atlantic is however notoriously full of potholes, winds can be favourable or unfavourable around the Falklands, and the hovering high pressures of the horses latitudes can always throw a spanner in the wheels. We can only wait and see, but I am anticipating plenty of excitement. Unlike traditional one-start events, here we have a boat leading which, however, is not the fastest, and chasing boats that keep biting from behind, so that it is far from a drag race where the rich get richer with positions typically only stirred by accidents and technical issues.

David Linger – Koloa Maoli ©davidlinger

 

Fourteen boats are at sea and still in the event right now, all of which are now in the southern hemisphere. Kevin Le Poidevin, Alessandro Tosetti and Andrea Mura are in the South Atlantic and only Philippe Delamare is in the Pacific leaving a 10-strong group of boats currently sailing in the South Indian Ocean.

This group, led by Cole Brauer has Ronnie Simpson on the chase, third overall on the water and in terms of expected time of arrival, his problems with the mainsail cost him over 300 miles on his compatriot ahead in just a week, but the loss has not been as bad as it could have been in different weather conditions, Ronnie managed to keep good speeds even whilst his mainsail was lowered for repairs.

Italian Riccardo Tosetto on Obportus has been clocking some fast sailing days, gaining confidence and raising the bar in the roaring forties, keeping a little more canvas up than he had done in the earlier stages of getting acquainted with the south. His primary concern and headache had been the loss of his primary wind sensor which, however, seems to be functioning again, with the problem probably limited to a slightly oxidised connection wire.

Pavlin Nadvorni on Espresso Martini keeps delighting us with his witty blog which always manages to bring a smile or a chuckle. Pavlin has seen his sparring partner Ari Kansakoski on ZEROchallenge stop in Cape Town for repairs and restart. Pavlin, despite claiming to be taking a very conservative approach, has covered very good mileage in the roaring forties.

Pavlin Nadvorni – Espresso Martini ©globalsolochallenge

 

Louis Robein on Le Souffle de La Mer III, who had sailed quite conservatively up to Cape of  Good Hope seems to be enjoying the fast conditions of the higher latitudes, he shrugged off with some humorous comments two near knock-downs when broaching on two occasions and seeing all his belongings neatly rearranged all on the leeward side of the boat.

Francois Gouin on Kawan3 – Unicancer and David Linger on Koloa Maoli have been quite fast too this week with steady 200 miles days, similar to the miles covered by Riccardo Tosetto and Ronnie Simpson further ahead, indicating they have finally found their rhythm and pace in the south.

Edouard de Keyser on Solarwind has found renewed confidence in his boat after the repairs in Cape Town and equipment upgrades, and feels he’s finally ready for this circumnavigation after all the trial and tribulations of the early stages. He’s the smallest boat left  in the fleet but he’s holding his own with a boat that despite its small size can surf and therefore perform well in following winds.

Ari Känsäkoski on ZEROchallenge has had a rather slow restart from Cape Town keeping perhaps too far to the north rather than seeking immediately to reach the roaring forties, after a couple of painfully slow days he has now gained pace.

Ari Känsäkoski – ZEROchallenge ©globalsolochallenge

 

Andrea Mura overtook Alessandro Tosetti around Tristan da Cunha, the two Italian skippers sail on very different boats and with different approaches and goals. Alessandro has openly made conservative choices especially as he had to deal with some equipment issues that made him favour a more northerly route away from the strong winds further south. Andrea on the other hand, with al long background of offshore racing, is still finding the balance between speed and boat preservation, after the knockdown he suffered he decided to remove his outriggers which often ended touching the water and were at risk of being damaged, and he’s trying to find the sweet spot for maximum speed as in his case he can be faster in lighter winds with his number one enemy being rough and cross seas which prevent him to sail at his maximum potential.

Last but not least, Kevin Le Poidevin has spent several days dodging and negotiating the passage between equatorial squalls, he crossed the equator and hooked into the more stable southeasterly trade winds. Kevin is also striking a balance between speed and boat preservation knowing the route is still very long and that his self funded campaign did not allow him to have all brand new equipment and sails which warrant for extra caution to avoid unnecessary breakdowns.

From first to last, every skipper has had to deal with all the trials and tribulations of such a long solo navigation. The roaring forties are testing the resolve of the skippers with long days under gray skies, low temperatures and the relentless carousel of lows weeping over them. It’s been a week of maturation for the whole fleet, from excitement, novelty and accidents we are seeing the skippers grow in confidence and, without exclusion, showing they have what it takes to continue in this enormous personal challenge.

 

 

To read about the adventures of each skipper, read the Skippers’ blog page: https://globalsolochallenge.com/blogs/

Moreover, if you wish to support a skipper and send them a personal message, you can do so from each skipper’s profile page on the Entries Profiles page: https://globalsolochallenge.com/entries/

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