Raining in Paris, but who’s set to Reign in Marseille?

While the rain has been falling in Paris, it’s been hot and getting hotter for the build-up to the start of the Olympic Regatta in sunny Marseille.

However, the warmer the water, the less likely for a thermally driven sea breeze in the Bay of Marseille. The start of competition is looking like it will be on the lighter side, with breeze forecast for less than 10 knots.

This is important because most sailors like some wind conditions more than others. They can’t afford to admit that to themselves, because they have to be ready for anything. And over the past number of weeks and months training in the Olympic venue, they have seen absolutely everything that the weather can hurl at them.

But now the rubber is about to hit the road, it’s looking a light one for the Men’s and Women’s Windsurfing who kick off proceedings just after midday on Sunday. A little later in the afternoon the Men’s and Women’s Skiffs will be beginning their campaigns, while for the remaining events they still have a few more days before their first day of Olympic competition.

Here’s a rundown of the four events due to race on Day One, and some of the athletes to watch out for.

Men’s & Women’s Windsurfing

The iQFOiL equipment has transformed Olympic windsurfing with the introduction of hydrofoils that lift the boards and the athletes clean out of the water. Once they’re flying above the surface it’s quite possible for the boards to barrel along at speeds of 30 knots (55kmh) or more.

There are three race formats which can be used across the week: the Marathon Race, Slalom and Course Racing.

In the women’s fleet, Great Britain’s Emma Wilson has proven the most consistent, winning medals at most of the major events over the past couple of seasons. She also won a bronze medal at Tokyo 2020 on the old non-foiling equipment, the RS:X board. The reigning World Champion, Sharon Kantor, is a strong medal prospect for Israel, while others to watch include Sara Wennekes from The Netherlands, Mexico’s Marina Aguilar and Pilar Lamadrid from Spain.

Luuc van Opzeeland of The Netherlands dominated the light airs racing at the World Championships in Lanzarote at the start of the year. However van Opzeeland lost out in the winner-takes-all three-rider final, having to settle for bronze behind Poland’s Pawel Tarnowski who took silver and Italy’s Nicolo Renna who took the world title. Renna has proven particularly strong at the sudden-death nature of the final day’s racing in this new and exciting format. Among plenty of others who could tilt at the podium are Australia’s Grae Morris and France’s Nicolas Goyard, whose brother Thomas Goyard took windsurfing silver three years ago in Tokyo.

Men’s and Women’s Skiff

Since Tokyo 2020 the teams from The Netherlands have been the most dominant in the Men’s and Women’s Skiffs. Three of the past four world titles have gone to Dutch teams, although no one believes there are any nailed-on favourites for gold. However, if anyone deserves the status of Skiff favourite, it would be Bart Lambriex and Floris van de Werken in the Men’s 49er and Odile van Aanholt and Annette Duetz in the Women’s 49erFX.

Paris 2024 will be the third Olympic Regatta for the 49erFX Women’s Skiff, and both Olympic gold medals at Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020 went to the highly experienced team of Martine Grael and Kahena Kunze from Brazil. 

While the Brazilians have struggled to hold pace with the front of the fleet during this three-year cycle since Tokyo, no one would bet against their Olympic experience and sheer guts and determination. Add to that the light-airs forecast for the coming week, and that could work in favour of the Brazilians who are one of the lighter teams in the fleet.

The Swedish crew of Vilma Bobeck and Rebecca Netzler only teamed up in early 2022 after campaigning for Tokyo in separate boats. The moment they got together in the same boat, the chemistry was instant. The Swedes pushed the Dutch hard for the 2022 world title in Canada and finished in silver. The following year at the Allianz Sailing World Championships in The Hague, the strong winds and big waves of the North Sea played to the strengths of the tall Swedes who were unstoppable. They won the 2023 world title with the Medal Race to spare.

However, in a mix of conditions like they encountered at the 2024 Worlds in Lanzarote this past February, it’s those Dutch – van Aanholt and Duetz – who are capable of being quick in anything. There are plenty of others who have a serious shot at the podium including Italy’s Jana Germani and Giorgia Bertuzzi, Belgium’s Isaura Maenhaut and Anouk Geurts and Spain’s Tamara Echegoyen and Paula Barcelo. Echegoyen is a double FX World Champion as well as winning Olympic gold in women’s match racing at London 2012.

With the light wind forecast the 2023 European Champions and highly experienced team from Norway, Helene Næss and Marie Ronningen, are strong challengers. A dark horse could be France’s own Sarah Steyaert and Charline Picon [Rio 2016 windsurfing gold medallist] who carry good knowledge of the local conditions.

49er Men

Bart Lambriex and Floris van de Werken won three back-to-back world titles from 2021 to 2023 before being beaten by France’s Erwan Fischer and Clément Pequin at a predominantly breezy Worlds in Lanzarote earlier this season. 

The new black sails which became class legal after Tokyo are stiffer and more powerful than the previous rig, and crew weights have risen accordingly. When the fleet witnessed just how fast the French were on the rolling waves of Lanzarote, many teams decided it was important to pile on a few extra kilos before The Games.

Aside from the Dutch and the French, the Spanish team are looking like strong. Recent winners of Season 4 of the Grand Prix circuit SailGP, Diego Botin and Florian Trittel have been showing great form this year. They won at major events in Palma and Hyères in the South of France as well as taking bronze at the past two 49er World Championships. Botin, sailing with former crew Iago Lopez, narrowly missed the Tokyo 2020 podium so his motivation for a medal is sky high.

Light winds could shake up the usual pecking order and among those who are ready to pounce on any weaknesses shown by the favourites include the top two finishers at this year’s European Championships in the south of France. They are Uruguay’s Hernan Umpierre and Fernando Diz and Great Britain’s James Peters and Fynn Sterritt, while Croatian brothers Sime and Mihovil Fantela are former World Champions who could yet come good when it matters most